Large-scale deal-making is probably not in the cards anytime soon, if gossip at the just finished Global Gaming Expo (G2E) is any indication. The casino sector is sometimes a hotbed of consolidation rumors.
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) chatter at G2E was muted compared to previous years, according to Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial in a recent report to clients. A reduced expectation for asset sales on the Las Vegas Strip is part of this.
"Given larger average purchase price, Strip M&A appetite seems limited until interest rates come in further,” observes Stantial.
That pertains to Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) and is probably priced into the stock's decline.Caesars has long been thought to be considering selling one of its Strip properties, which would help decrease debt. However, there aren't many reliable cash purchasers, so potential suitors will probably need to finance agreements, which is an unappealing offer when interest rates are high.By the end of 2026, rates are predicted to drop by 100 to 120 basis points, which might be excellent news.
It's also improbable that needle-moving transactions between local casinos would occur in the foreseeable future outside of the Strip.According to Stantial, the majority of seller interest is in lower-quality assets, which may limit interest from prospective purchasers.
This aligns with some operator criticism that suggests prospective purchasers of local casinos are unable to locate assets that satisfy their requirements and will not be pressured into transactions in order to expand their holdings.
The analyst pointed out that Century Casinos (NASDAQ: CNTY), which is presently undergoing a strategic review, may be an outlier on the seller side. The operator "seemed open to all options in the ongoing strategic review," according to Stantial. The long-awaited sale of the company's two-thirds stake in Casinos Poland is being discussed.
“We continue to see an outright sale as unlikely given the variety of assets/markets & challenges under-writing to expected ‘fully-ramped’ earnings power, though see potential for one-off divestitures – in particular CNTY’s Canadian portfolio given increasingly non-core nature & historically higher transaction multiples vs. U.S. assets,” observes the Stifel analyst. “We expect management to be thorough evaluating options, indicating more likely CY26 resolution.”
Online sports betting (OSB) may look more closely at acquisition candidates in the prediction markets sector given the recent surge in funding activity in that area. However, several state regulators have cautioned that gaming companies' licenses may be in jeopardy if they sincerely enter into event contracts, which might limit OSB operators' ability to make purchases in the prediction market.
According to Stantial, "undetermined prediction markets strategies for incumbent OSB operators, and efforts to accelerate player deposits/liquidity for exchanges, and brand & odds provider tuck-ins for regulated OSB operators" are related M&A themes to keep an eye on.
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